Business groups warn foreign worker curbs could hit Lithuania's economic growth

Lithuanian business representatives warned Wednesday that restrictions on hiring foreign workers could weigh on the country's economic growth, according to broadcaster LRT.

"Most of us probably encounter migrants in one way or another, so we look at this issue through the lens of personal experience and perception," said Zivile Simonaityte-Vasiliauskiene, an economist at the Lithuanian Confederation of Industrialists.

She made the remarks at a news conference attended by various business groups and representatives.

Around 227,000 foreign nationals reside in Lithuania, about 108,000 of whom hold temporary residence permits allowing them to live and work in the country.

"When we discuss migration, we very often focus on the quota, thinking that all migration is about the migrant quota, which is almost 25,000," Simonaityte-Vasiliauskiene said.

Lithuania currently has a quota system for workers arriving from non-EU countries.

"If we count only foreign nationals who have residence permits in Lithuania on various grounds, the quota accounts for about 10%," Simonaityte-Vasiliauskiene said.

"It is certainly a small part of overall migration, just one way of having legal migration to Lithuania, but certainly not the main one," she added.

Simonaityte-Vasiliauskiene said foreign nationals working in Lithuania generated 45% of GDP growth between 2019 and 2024, citing Bank of Lithuania calculations.

Maintaining the quota would mean lost GDP growth and tax revenue for the state, she warned.

"So, this year alone, we estimate that the quota running out before the end of the year could potentially mean about €100 million ($112 million) in GDP not being generated in Lithuania," Simonaityte-Vasiliauskiene said.

She warned that the figure could reach as much as €150 million ($168 million) under the worst-case scenario.

Simonaityte-Vasiliauskiene also estimated that quota restrictions could result in between €20 million ($22 million) and €25 million ($28 million) in lost tax revenue this year.

She said the impact could be greater in 2027 if the current restrictions remain in place, potentially costing Lithuania around €500 million ($559 million) in GDP and €90 million ($101 million) in tax revenue.