Ryanair cuts passenger target as high fuel costs prompt smaller winter schedule

• Sustained fuel costs could materially raise European short-haul fares and threaten less-hedged rivals, company warns

Ryanair lowered its passenger target for the current financial year as soaring jet fuel prices prompted the Irish budget airline to reduce its winter schedule.

The carrier said Wednesday that it now expects to carry 214 million passengers in fiscal 2027, down from its previous forecast of 216 million.

The reduction is intended to limit Ryanair’s exposure to unhedged fuel purchases during its typically loss-making winter schedule from November to March.

Passenger traffic during that period is now expected to remain broadly unchanged from a year earlier.

Ryanair said the one-off schedule reduction could cut its winter losses by between €70 million ($81 million) and €100 million, depending on pricing and passenger demand.

Jet fuel was trading at approximately $140 per barrel, according to the company, as the conflict in the Middle East continued to drive energy prices higher.

Ryanair has hedged 80% of its fuel requirements for fiscal 2027 at around $67 per barrel, providing it with greater protection against elevated spot prices than many competitors.

The airline said it remains well positioned to record another profitable year, although profit after tax is expected to fall below the record level achieved in fiscal 2026.

It added that it was still too early to provide detailed profit guidance.

Ryanair also warned that European short-haul airfares could rise materially if high oil prices persist into the summer 2027 season, as airlines pass increased fuel costs on to passengers.

Some less-hedged competitors could struggle to maintain capacity or even survive the coming winter, it added.

Despite the revised full-year target, Ryanair remains on course to increase its summer traffic by more than 5% to 145 million passengers from 138 million a year earlier.

The airline carried 22.2 million passengers in August, up 6% from 21 million in the same month last year, while its load factor remained unchanged at 96%.

Rolling 12-month traffic increased 5% to 214.4 million passengers, with the load factor steady at 94%.