Most Fed officials see need for another rate hike before end of 2026

Most Federal Reserve officials indicated that another interest rate hike would likely be appropriate before the end of 2026, according to minutes of the central bank’s September meeting that were released Wednesday.

All participants supported a quarter-point increase at the Sept. 15-16 meeting, which raised the federal funds rate target range between 3.75% and 4%.

Officials generally emphasized that inflation remained elevated, economic activity was expanding at a solid pace and the labor market appeared near full employment, with some signs of strengthening.

Almost all participants assessed that inflation risks were tilted to the upside, while risks to the labor market diminished and were broadly balanced.

Many considered a higher interest rate path prudent as insurance against inflation remaining persistently above the Fed’s 2% target because of stronger demand or further supply shocks.

Some warned that persistently elevated inflation could affect expectations and become more entrenched in wage- and price-setting decisions.

Energy costs, AI investment fuel inflation concerns

Officials noted that geopolitical developments had pushed up crude oil and refined fuel prices, while surging investment in artificial intelligence was also contributing to inflation pressures.

Many assessed that the longer energy prices remained elevated, the greater the risk that higher costs in individual sectors could spread into broader price pressures.

Some warned that the AI investment boom could cause overall demand to outpace supply in the medium term, putting upward pressure on inflation.

Officials generally expected AI investment to improve productivity and potential output in the coming years, but stressed substantial uncertainty about the size and timing of those gains.

Financial conditions remain supportive

Despite a recent rise in longer-term Treasury yields, many officials viewed financial conditions as supportive of economic growth, citing substantial stock market gains and narrow corporate bond spreads.

Several noted that credit remained broadly available. A few, however, said elevated mortgage rates continued to weigh on housing activity.

Participants stressed that they would approach each meeting with an open mind and base future decisions on incoming information, the economic outlook and the balance of risks.